emirates7 - Global merchandise trade is now expected to grow by 0.9% in 2025, an improvement from April’s forecast of a 0.2% contraction, but lower than the 2.7% growth predicted before recent tariff hikes, according to a WTO forecast update. The upward revision is largely driven by a surge in U.S. imports in early 2025 ahead of anticipated tariff increases. However, these higher tariffs are expected to curb trade growth, with the 2026 forecast lowered to 1.8% from 2.5%.
The jump in U.S. imports during the first quarter—prompted by the expectation of tariff hikes—boosted the revised 2025 outlook published in April’s Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report. Still, tariffs introduced this week are likely to slow trade in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that global trade has shown resilience despite persistent shocks, including recent tariff increases. She said that while frontloaded imports and stronger macroeconomic conditions have slightly improved the 2025 outlook, ongoing tariff uncertainty continues to undermine business confidence, investment, and supply chains.
In 2025, Asian economies are expected to be the main positive contributors to global merchandise trade growth, though their influence will diminish in 2026. North America will remain a drag on trade growth in both years, albeit less so in 2025 due to stronger-than-anticipated U.S. import activity early in the year. Europe’s outlook has shifted from moderately positive to slightly negative, while other regions—particularly energy-exporting economies—will see their trade contributions shrink as lower oil prices reduce export earnings and import demand.
Although the tariffs implemented on August 7 will increasingly pressure trade, their impact will be partly offset in the short term by import frontloading and inventory building, which will eventually reverse. A more favorable global economic environment is also providing some support, though it remains vulnerable to uncertainty.
The jump in U.S. imports during the first quarter—prompted by the expectation of tariff hikes—boosted the revised 2025 outlook published in April’s Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report. Still, tariffs introduced this week are likely to slow trade in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that global trade has shown resilience despite persistent shocks, including recent tariff increases. She said that while frontloaded imports and stronger macroeconomic conditions have slightly improved the 2025 outlook, ongoing tariff uncertainty continues to undermine business confidence, investment, and supply chains.
In 2025, Asian economies are expected to be the main positive contributors to global merchandise trade growth, though their influence will diminish in 2026. North America will remain a drag on trade growth in both years, albeit less so in 2025 due to stronger-than-anticipated U.S. import activity early in the year. Europe’s outlook has shifted from moderately positive to slightly negative, while other regions—particularly energy-exporting economies—will see their trade contributions shrink as lower oil prices reduce export earnings and import demand.
Although the tariffs implemented on August 7 will increasingly pressure trade, their impact will be partly offset in the short term by import frontloading and inventory building, which will eventually reverse. A more favorable global economic environment is also providing some support, though it remains vulnerable to uncertainty.