Who is the real loser if Pakistan don't play India in T20 World Cup?

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-After the emergency meeting in Lahore on Sunday, two former ICC officials revealed why India vs Pakistan cricket is bigger than politics — and bigger than one match

After the International Cricket Council’s emergency meeting with the Pakistan Cricket Board and the Bangladesh Cricket Board in Lahore on Sunday night, the cricketing world is now waiting with bated breath to see whether Pakistan’s government will withdraw its decision to boycott the T20 World Cup match against India.

The high-profile game, one of the biggest money-spinners in the world of sports, is scheduled for February 15 in Colombo.

Now, will Pakistan make a U-turn or stick to a decision taken as a mark of protest against the ICC for removing Bangladesh from the tournament?

The South Asian geopolitical tensions may have spilled over to the cricket field, but the fact remains that no India-Pakistan World Cup match means a severe dent to the cricketing ecosystem.

Impact on the broadcast deal
Chandresh Narayanan, former ICC Media and Communications Officer, revealed why the mega broadcast deals will come under a cloud of uncertainty in future.

“Because it is (India vs Pakistan) the single most valuable fixture in world cricket. When broadcasters bid for ICC media rights, the assumed presence of an India–Pakistan match is already factored into the valuation,” Narayanan told the Khaleej Times.

While the current deal, valued at $3 billion, is largely secure, negotiations between the broadcasters and the ICC for the next cycle will be impacted if the uncertainty over India-Pakistan matches remains during every World Cup in future due to the tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

“The real concern is the next rights cycle. Broadcasters will reassess valuations if there is persistent uncertainty over India–Pakistan matches at ICC events,” said Narayanan, who was also the research head in the Netflix cricket show, The Greatest Rivalry: India vs Pakistan.

Now, if the ICC was compelled to attend an emergency meeting in Lahore, hoping to break the impasse, it’s because their economic model is incomplete without Pakistan.

“Pakistan’s commercial value, despite being a smaller cricket economy than India, lies heavily in this rivalry (with India),” Narayanan said.

“Without Pakistan, there is no India–Pakistan match — and that weakens the commercial appeal of ICC tournaments. That rivalry gives Pakistan leverage it would not otherwise have.”

Associate nations’ future
It’s worth noting that the ICC representative in the Lahore emergency meeting was its deputy chairman Imran Khwaja, who is a Singaporean cricket administrator.

Singapore is among the 98 associate member nations of the ICC, where the governing body is working tirelessly to promote cricket.

However, the development of the sport in those countries depends on ICC revenues, which are mostly generated from elite international events.

Remarkably, the bulk of the revenue comes from India-Pakistan matches at the World Cup and the Champions Trophy events.

Sami Ul Hasan, former ICC head of media operations, explained how the Dubai-based cricket body distributes its revenues.

“The ICC is a not-for-profit organisation. It does not exist to make money for itself; it generates revenue on behalf of its members and redistributes it,” Hasan told the Khaleej Times.

“If the ICC generates $5 billion, it distributes $5 billion. If it generates $1 billion, it distributes $1 billion. The problem arises when high-value matches do not take place.

India–Pakistan games are consistently the most valuable fixtures in world cricket. A single India–Pakistan match can be worth anywhere between $250 million and $400 million, depending on the format — Tests, ODIs or T20S. That valuation includes broadcast rights, sponsorships, hospitality, tourism and commercial activation.”

But when India and Pakistan, who are always placed in the same group during every ICC tournament, don’t play, it hurts the economy of smaller cricket countries.

“India doesn’t suffer. The BCCI is financially strong and well-planned. The boards that suffer are the smaller ones — especially associate members. The ICC has 100-plus members, not just 10 or 12. The top boards (including Pakistan) can survive reduced distributions; the smaller ones cannot,” Hasan said.

“Cricket is an expensive sport. If associate members do not receive sufficient ICC funding, many of them will simply shut down operations. That is the harsh reality.

This is why people must understand that India–Pakistan cricket is not just about India and Pakistan. It is about the health of global cricket.”

The ongoing T20 World Cup in India and Sri Lanka features nine associate nations — the Netherlands, USA, Namibia, Oman, Scotland, Canada, Nepal, the UAE and Italy.

The football-obsessed Italy made global headlines last year when they qualified for the cricket World Cup for the first time.

It was seen as a major breakthrough for the ICC ahead of cricket’s long-awaited return to the Olympics in 2028.

But if India and Pakistan continue to remain at loggerheads, the ICC’s dream of making cricket a truly global sport will go up in smoke.

“It puts the ICC in a difficult position,” Narayanan said.

“On one hand, the ICC has a mandate to grow the game globally and include more teams. On the other hand, its financial survival depends heavily on a handful of markets and fixtures.

“If India–Pakistan becomes an unreliable fixture, broadcast valuations will suffer. That, in turn, impacts development funding, associate cricket and the broader health of the game.”