emirates7 - DMCC on Thursday launched its Future of Trade 2026 report, which found that global trade will remain resilient over the next two years but will be fundamentally reshaped by artificial intelligence, structural tariff volatility, supply chains designed for resilience, and a contest for industrial advantage in critical minerals and infrastructure powering global clean energy and technologies.
The report, Future of Trade 2026: Rebuilding Through Rupture, said that more than four in five business leaders surveyed by DMCC expect slow growth, continued supply chain disruption and prolonged geopolitical volatility in the coming years. Almost 12 percent expect a worst-case scenario driven by escalating conflict, tariffs, sanctions and financial fragmentation. Only 4 percent expect a best-case outcome.
Nearly 20 percent of global merchandise imports are now subject to tariffs or similar restrictions, up from 12.6 percent a year earlier.
At the same time, AI is rapidly emerging as the dominant driver of trade growth. Trade in AI-related goods, including semiconductors, servers and data-centre hardware, expanded by more than 20 percent in the first half of 2025, compared with less than 4 percent growth for non-AI goods. AI-related goods account for only 15 percent of global trade by volume, according to the report.
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) estimates that sustained AI-related trade growth could add 0.5 percentage points to global export volumes.
The report forecasts merchandise exports to slow to 1.9 percent in 2026, down from 4.6 percent in 2025, before marginally recovering to 2.6 percent in 2027. Services exports are forecast to continue outpacing goods.
Ahmed bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of DMCC, said, “AI-related goods accounted for 43 percent of global trade growth in the first half of 2025, despite representing just 15 percent of global trade by volume. This underscores where global trade is heading. We are entering a new phase in which competitiveness will be defined not only by cost or geography, but by technology, connectivity, energy access, and the ability to adapt quickly to disruption."
He added, “Dubai has positioned itself at the centre of these shifts by remaining open, agile, and deeply connected to global markets. With almost 27,000 companies in our district, DMCC sees these changes unfolding in real time across commodities, technology, finance, and trade.”
Feryal Ahmadi, Deputy CEO and Chief Operating Officer of DMCC, said, “The trade environment is becoming more complex, but also more connected. AI is already improving efficiency across customs, logistics, compliance and trade finance, and we are now moving towards practical, operational deployment. Stablecoins, tokenisation and wholesale central bank digital currencies are beginning to support faster and more flexible settlement in certain corridors."
Data regulation, cybersecurity and digital governance are becoming increasingly important considerations for businesses operating internationally, she added.
Ahmadi stated, “In this environment, trade hubs like DMCC have an important role to play in anticipating the needs of global businesses and ensuring they can continue to operate, grow and adapt through periods of disruption and change. The companies that will perform best are those investing in technology, building operational resilience and remaining agile as global trade continues to evolve.”
The report identified four structural forces reshaping global commerce: AI moving from experimentation to operational deployment; the breakdown of a stable tariff framework; the shift from efficiency-led to resilience-led supply chains; and the energy transition becoming a contest for industrial and geopolitical advantage.
One of the report's most consequential findings is the widening gap between businesses treating AI as a strategic priority and those still running pilots. Fewer than 15 percent of firms surveyed describe their AI deployment as fully integrated; more than a quarter report no meaningful adoption at all. With agentic AI systems beginning to take on complex logistics, compliance and trade finance decisions, the report warned that this gap will harden into a structural competitive divide.
On tariffs, more than half of respondents now expect trade to become more regional and bloc-based. Only 17 percent anticipate a more multilateral outcome.
The report highlighted that the "China + 1" diversification model has been overtaken in many sectors by broader "China + many" strategies. US imports from Vietnam rose 345 percent between 2014 and 2024; imports from India rose 94 percent and from Mexico 72 percent over the same period, while imports from China contracted 5 percent.
The report said that disruptions in 2026 linked to the Strait of Hormuz, which led to higher oil prices and a decline in shipping traffic, underscored the need to rebuild supply chains on more resilient foundations. The report noted that 45 percent of businesses have already engaged in onshoring, nearshoring or friendshoring.
Clean energy investment reached a record $2.3 trillion in 2025, outpacing fossil fuel investment by $102 billion. China controls 94 percent of global sintered permanent magnet production, an input critical to EVs, wind turbines, AI data centres and defence systems, and leads refining for 19 of 20 strategic minerals tracked by the IEA.
The global trade finance gap has held at $2.5 trillion, with SMEs and developing-economy exporters bearing a disproportionate share. The report identified next-generation financial infrastructure as a potential partial remedy, with global stablecoin supply exceeding $300 billion in early 2026, B2B stablecoin payments growing 733 percent year-on-year in 2025.
One of the report's quieter but structurally significant findings is the continued rise of South-South trade and growing influence of middle powers. Flows between developing economies now account for approximately 35 percent of global trade, outpacing North-North flows, and accelerating.
The IMF forecasts that by 2030, emerging and developing economies will account for around two-thirds of global growth.
The report pointed to the UAE, India and Singapore as global “connectors” and examples of middle power economies capturing redirected trade and investment flows through infrastructure and diversified trade relationships.
The Future of Trade 2026 is the sixth and tenth-anniversary edition of DMCC’s biennial flagship report on the changing nature of global trade. It draws on 12 roundtables with over 200 senior leaders, policymakers and trade experts across key global trade centres, alongside a survey of more than 130 leading businesses and trade practitioners.
The report, Future of Trade 2026: Rebuilding Through Rupture, said that more than four in five business leaders surveyed by DMCC expect slow growth, continued supply chain disruption and prolonged geopolitical volatility in the coming years. Almost 12 percent expect a worst-case scenario driven by escalating conflict, tariffs, sanctions and financial fragmentation. Only 4 percent expect a best-case outcome.
Nearly 20 percent of global merchandise imports are now subject to tariffs or similar restrictions, up from 12.6 percent a year earlier.
At the same time, AI is rapidly emerging as the dominant driver of trade growth. Trade in AI-related goods, including semiconductors, servers and data-centre hardware, expanded by more than 20 percent in the first half of 2025, compared with less than 4 percent growth for non-AI goods. AI-related goods account for only 15 percent of global trade by volume, according to the report.
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) estimates that sustained AI-related trade growth could add 0.5 percentage points to global export volumes.
The report forecasts merchandise exports to slow to 1.9 percent in 2026, down from 4.6 percent in 2025, before marginally recovering to 2.6 percent in 2027. Services exports are forecast to continue outpacing goods.
Ahmed bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of DMCC, said, “AI-related goods accounted for 43 percent of global trade growth in the first half of 2025, despite representing just 15 percent of global trade by volume. This underscores where global trade is heading. We are entering a new phase in which competitiveness will be defined not only by cost or geography, but by technology, connectivity, energy access, and the ability to adapt quickly to disruption."
He added, “Dubai has positioned itself at the centre of these shifts by remaining open, agile, and deeply connected to global markets. With almost 27,000 companies in our district, DMCC sees these changes unfolding in real time across commodities, technology, finance, and trade.”
Feryal Ahmadi, Deputy CEO and Chief Operating Officer of DMCC, said, “The trade environment is becoming more complex, but also more connected. AI is already improving efficiency across customs, logistics, compliance and trade finance, and we are now moving towards practical, operational deployment. Stablecoins, tokenisation and wholesale central bank digital currencies are beginning to support faster and more flexible settlement in certain corridors."
Data regulation, cybersecurity and digital governance are becoming increasingly important considerations for businesses operating internationally, she added.
Ahmadi stated, “In this environment, trade hubs like DMCC have an important role to play in anticipating the needs of global businesses and ensuring they can continue to operate, grow and adapt through periods of disruption and change. The companies that will perform best are those investing in technology, building operational resilience and remaining agile as global trade continues to evolve.”
The report identified four structural forces reshaping global commerce: AI moving from experimentation to operational deployment; the breakdown of a stable tariff framework; the shift from efficiency-led to resilience-led supply chains; and the energy transition becoming a contest for industrial and geopolitical advantage.
One of the report's most consequential findings is the widening gap between businesses treating AI as a strategic priority and those still running pilots. Fewer than 15 percent of firms surveyed describe their AI deployment as fully integrated; more than a quarter report no meaningful adoption at all. With agentic AI systems beginning to take on complex logistics, compliance and trade finance decisions, the report warned that this gap will harden into a structural competitive divide.
On tariffs, more than half of respondents now expect trade to become more regional and bloc-based. Only 17 percent anticipate a more multilateral outcome.
The report highlighted that the "China + 1" diversification model has been overtaken in many sectors by broader "China + many" strategies. US imports from Vietnam rose 345 percent between 2014 and 2024; imports from India rose 94 percent and from Mexico 72 percent over the same period, while imports from China contracted 5 percent.
The report said that disruptions in 2026 linked to the Strait of Hormuz, which led to higher oil prices and a decline in shipping traffic, underscored the need to rebuild supply chains on more resilient foundations. The report noted that 45 percent of businesses have already engaged in onshoring, nearshoring or friendshoring.
Clean energy investment reached a record $2.3 trillion in 2025, outpacing fossil fuel investment by $102 billion. China controls 94 percent of global sintered permanent magnet production, an input critical to EVs, wind turbines, AI data centres and defence systems, and leads refining for 19 of 20 strategic minerals tracked by the IEA.
The global trade finance gap has held at $2.5 trillion, with SMEs and developing-economy exporters bearing a disproportionate share. The report identified next-generation financial infrastructure as a potential partial remedy, with global stablecoin supply exceeding $300 billion in early 2026, B2B stablecoin payments growing 733 percent year-on-year in 2025.
One of the report's quieter but structurally significant findings is the continued rise of South-South trade and growing influence of middle powers. Flows between developing economies now account for approximately 35 percent of global trade, outpacing North-North flows, and accelerating.
The IMF forecasts that by 2030, emerging and developing economies will account for around two-thirds of global growth.
The report pointed to the UAE, India and Singapore as global “connectors” and examples of middle power economies capturing redirected trade and investment flows through infrastructure and diversified trade relationships.
The Future of Trade 2026 is the sixth and tenth-anniversary edition of DMCC’s biennial flagship report on the changing nature of global trade. It draws on 12 roundtables with over 200 senior leaders, policymakers and trade experts across key global trade centres, alongside a survey of more than 130 leading businesses and trade practitioners.
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